How nasty language helps us to predict election outcomes. Or, to be more precise, to predict outcomes for the right.
An experiment from the Free-from-MAGA-minds front.
The climate and our future, economy and politics, science and health - they're global issues.
Society, democracy, equal rights, education. Truly, everything that matters today is global.
Society, democracy, equal rights, education. Truly, everything that matters today is global.
It stands to reason: We better cooperate. Within and across borders.
But for nationalists, there's "them and us".
They feel threatened by diversity. We feel threatened without it.
So clearly, we have reason to care how much power they have.
But for nationalists, there's "them and us".
They feel threatened by diversity. We feel threatened without it.
So clearly, we have reason to care how much power they have.
Alas, we have some tools to predict the strength of the right!
Back to 2016: The Brexit referendum in June was a game-changer, so was Donald Trump getting elected into office in November. Two historic events with truly global ramifications.
What we observed then: Too much nationalism changes search patterns.
Global Natives started looking for kindred spirits in their own neighbourhood.
We asked them why.
Global Natives started looking for kindred spirits in their own neighbourhood.
We asked them why.
They said: "There's too much xenophobia and narrow-mindedness, it's stifling,
and it's depressing!" They longed for open-minded company to raise their kids.
With better conversations, more empathy, more hope, wider horizons.
and it's depressing!" They longed for open-minded company to raise their kids.
With better conversations, more empathy, more hope, wider horizons.
We realized that search patterns are a great indicator. In fact, they help to predict the outcome of elections. And then, in the summer of 2018, one family had an idea for a highly unorthodox experiment: The Verbal Shit Statistics |
When Michael Moore, back in October 2016, predicted that Hillary Clinton would lose the election, he had done something incredibly smart. |
Richard is a maths professor in Manchester, he is the father of two sons and two daughters.
Pushed by his kids (it was their idea) and assisted by his brother, a behavioural scientist,
he started a new Global Natives tribe just before Xmas 2018: The Verbal Shit Statistics.
Richard's kids (13, 16, 17 and 19 years old at the time) were fascinated by Moore's
indirect approach. It clearly had an advantage over established opinion poll strategies.
Their idea was: Forget asking the parents.
Too many adults give the answers they think you may want to hear.
Instead, let's listen to their kids.
Pushed by his kids (it was their idea) and assisted by his brother, a behavioural scientist,
he started a new Global Natives tribe just before Xmas 2018: The Verbal Shit Statistics.
Richard's kids (13, 16, 17 and 19 years old at the time) were fascinated by Moore's
indirect approach. It clearly had an advantage over established opinion poll strategies.
Their idea was: Forget asking the parents.
Too many adults give the answers they think you may want to hear.
Instead, let's listen to their kids.
Now, every Monday, well over 17,000 teenagers worldwide count swear words.
"Fucking" is the term most frequently used to describe an unwanted human being.
So, in English, that term might be used for fucking foreigners, fucking unemployed,
fucking bitches, fucking homeless, fucking poof, fucking retard, etc.
In German, for instance, it is the prefix "Scheiss-", as in Scheiss Ausländer etc.
Sounds nasty, of course. It is. But it is part of daily life.
So, in English, that term might be used for fucking foreigners, fucking unemployed,
fucking bitches, fucking homeless, fucking poof, fucking retard, etc.
In German, for instance, it is the prefix "Scheiss-", as in Scheiss Ausländer etc.
Sounds nasty, of course. It is. But it is part of daily life.
To be clear: The focus isn't on dirty language, it's on dehumanizing language.
Which is in daily use everywhere, including schools, school yards and school buses
- all the places where kids repeat and pass on what they hear from others, in particular
from their parents.
- all the places where kids repeat and pass on what they hear from others, in particular
from their parents.
However, the frequency of the use of "verbal shit" has distinct ups and downs:
It rises considerably in the weeks before an election, in keeping with political propaganda.
More than anything else, it mirrors the language of the far right.
More than anything else, it mirrors the language of the far right.
For over four years by now, a rising number of teens kept count of just how often they hear "fucking" (or their own country's equivalent) within a set timeframe every Monday, and they have entered their results into the tribe's verbal shit statistics. They do this on Mondays, because after the weekend, use of this kind of language tends to be strongest. And, lo and behold, these numbers make precise predictions possible! |
The power of language - for better or worse
Just as Michael Moore listened to the neighbours, Richard's experiment focuses on the kids.
Kids repeat what they hear when the family sits around the dinner table. Or the telly.
It shapes their attitude. It shapes their language.
Kids repeat what they hear when the family sits around the dinner table. Or the telly.
It shapes their attitude. It shapes their language.
When they hear racist and misogynistic remarks, when xenophobic and homophobic opinions prevail, when dad feels that the unemployed need a stronger hand and mum believes that vaccines are devil's work, when both are sure that parliament is a bunch of incompetent dimwits, that there is no such thing as man made climate change and Brussels is to blame for absolutely everything - then their kids want to tell others about it. In the same language.
This means: Measuring such language in countable terms lets us measure exclusion.
Want some examples?
Want some examples?
A "fucking foreigner" isn't just someone from abroad. He's unwanted here. Does a seven-year-old, calling his neighbour a "fucking poofter", really know what he's saying? What about the teenager who calls his teacher a "fucking bitch"? There are refugees at the railway station. To some kids, they are "dirty fucking parasites". And what about this 11-year-old girl demanding that fucking climate activists ought to be kneecapped? |
So this is powerful. How do we use it?
Our findings stay within the community. They will never be made public.
Nor do they come with any scientific claims. Their purpose is this:
We aim to empower the next generation to become better global citizens and,
if they feel the call for it, better politicians (click to see how they think about it).
Nor do they come with any scientific claims. Their purpose is this:
We aim to empower the next generation to become better global citizens and,
if they feel the call for it, better politicians (click to see how they think about it).
They need to be able to understand and interpret wisely, to analyse with insight.
For this, predictions for elections are a helpful tool, and their accuracy proves a point.
Moreover, the stats drastically show them how divisive language changes a society.
For this, predictions for elections are a helpful tool, and their accuracy proves a point.
Moreover, the stats drastically show them how divisive language changes a society.
1.) This teaches young people first-hand what language does to the mindset.
In the family, amongst peers. And how words translate into action.
In the family, amongst peers. And how words translate into action.
2.) Young Global Natives understand that many voters want strong language to express
their emotions. And they see how populists use language to kindle their fear and anger.
their emotions. And they see how populists use language to kindle their fear and anger.
3.) Anticipating political swings allows us to address issues in time.
We, as a community, want to have our ear on society's heartbeat.
It helps to create better conversations, and to act more than to react.
We, as a community, want to have our ear on society's heartbeat.
It helps to create better conversations, and to act more than to react.
... because we do give a shit. | 😉 |